GlobalSpring 2025 update:
From Norman Macrae Diary: 1943 surviving lest productive teenager job- navigator allied bomber command burma; 46 last class keynes cambridge; marry daughter of sir kenneth kemp (diaspora scots founded mumbai's first pharmciast, ur ken 25 years mediation with Gandhi - first draft of legalese of independnce of whole subcontinent of india (not later partition)); hired for 1948 41 years by the Economist ; sent 1951 to intern with von neumann what maps of quintillion times moore tech would make old economiscs and journalism greatest dangers tio survival of millennial generation -genre entrepreneurial revolution 1976, future histiries from 1972 - 2025report.com ;; 1955 only journalist at messina birth of eu; concept great by 1961 Euoocrats implemented opposite to intergenerational survival (out of any hemisphere - america's asia's , far north's, far south's)
IN 1980 my father Economist's Norman Macrae and I started a 30 year debate (until dad's death at 86 in 2010 on education transformation millennials would need to survive quintrilion times more tech
Resourecs then included - 1982 Economist survey why not silicon valey everywhere?
1983 on editions of book in 40 year future hoistiry genere- eg 2025Report.com - download 1984 version at www.economist.diary.com/1984 ; the book had 2 halves - from chater 6 how quintillion times more tech required transformation of ever dynamic of millennials lives beginmniong with education and health from 2000 on
the first 5 chapters looked at the mess of history- how the 2 world wars multiplied many conflicts including btitish empire had only shared engineering benefots with a minority of people and less than 15% of Asians the biggest population
how germany and ussr had been taken off by clinically mad stalin and hitler; and inconveneinetly one would win world war 2 with finger on atomic bombs capable of ending our species; you can read chapeters 1 to 5 of dad's book as visioning when berlin wall would fall and what the w3est would need to do to celebrate the new gfreedom of the russian people as well as all the newly split nations; we in tge westdid not welcome the russian people into productivity as the quintillion times more tech-so toady spring 2025 Europe has its last chnace to celebrate what millennials needed their parenst and grand parents to invest in accelerated
From 1951 dad's leaders in The Economist were informed by training/interning with Von Neumann (see also dad's biography and other resoirces at http://neumann.ning.com )
missing knowhow on what your place did through last 50-70 years of your parents and grandparents- example in london 1959-1964 (my age 8 to 13); i found this huge wasteof time -only a lot later i reaslied nobody could agree what to teach let alone examine british kids on what UK had done ibetween 1900-10=950- were the 2 world wars more about crisises british empire borders had spiralled than other issues apart from both hitler and stalin were clinicaly insane at a time when nation leader would soon have their fingers on bombs that could exterminate our species
Problems of intelligence-centric - agency of life age 0 to 15 (eg half of all brain development by age 6 makes neurscience- designed motherhood/play schools important); it also makes education interventions vita- fail the syste not the kid if not confient anout literacy (reading age 6) writing and numeracy age 7
team social emotional inteligence age 8
missing curriculum peeer to peer gorls health mediated by older sistsers each year from pre-adolescence
format worldwide digotal access to knowhow versus local action learmimg
at www.ai20s.com we incite you tpplay a game inspored by von neumann - who has shared with all 8 billion brains what intelligence boosters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_jw40Ga_mA&t=1s
ideas kings english llm welcome japan emperors llm qatar araboian llm modi india's llm - and please tell us if your people's data soverigty needs to connect wityh these llms either generally or on specific mkarkets starting with health and intelligence-centric learning bbc Transripts
questions to update https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/28dgfdz9sc4hnlYT2cL5dTv/transcripts
who attended king charles ukraine day sunday in London March 2; where will next relay meeting action Match 2 - Karmer Macron EU presodent and council presdient, italian female pm, zsllenski, ... baltic leaders lithuania estonis latvia (digital briefing on morning)
Italy Gerogia meloni rough summary: in this precious moment we must talk to each other; the subject long and lasting peace with Ukraine ; italy and UK can help contribute to this with any EU countries who want to join in -howevber others say Nathalie Tocci Meloni is nearer trump than eg the new gemerna chncellot and will not publicly express views opposite to his
Erdowan wants legitimalisation in eyes of european - turkey 2nd largest army in etope; supplied drones to ukraine.
Finnish pm - friday was wake up call - trump said euset up to screw usa; (thats wroing versus 1955 messina concept but coirrect from 1961 takeover by Brussels Eurocrats - see Economist diaried 1955-61 as only journalist there from birth oat messina
great ideas from Finnish presidnt
so iare euro-us futuyres decoupled?
Neil Melvin - deeper set of question us role in europe- if us not goimg to be there how is Europe secirity organised against background of euro-segmentation (eg humabgary's opposite view);
Campbell Rest is Politics pod & tube
michael worlf's 4 books on trump
march 2025 chatdS Michael Wolff is a well-known author and journalist who has written several books about Donald Trump and his presidency. One of his most famous works is **"Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House"**, published in 2018. This book provides an explosive and controversial look at the early days of the Trump administration, based on extensive interviews with insiders. It delves into the chaos, infighting, and Trump's unconventional leadership style, as well as his desire for fame and attention.
Viewpont on china's 2025-2030 plan - President of tsinghua basics; you will notice this is very much domestically oriented. China's Five-Year Plan was initially called the economic plan and now it's called the economic and social plan. Now people are saying more dimensions should be included. Now it's a national development plan. Whether the name will be changed is yet to be seen. I think the first thing people are concerned about is economic growth: whether there should be any numerical targets being set, and if so, then how much. 4%? 5%? There is some disagreement on that. That's one priority.
ReplyDeleteThe second is about the so-called growth quality. China has been advocating for high-quality growth. So what does it mean? People talk about many dimensions of that, including a more balanced and diversified economic structure, more balanced rural-urban development, particularly the regional balances and how to maintain the achievements of the poverty allegation effort. In some places, the poor people do seem to be on a kind of a backtrack. So people want to make sure that indeed, those people who are out of poverty continue to be out of poverty. That's the second dimension, growth quality.
The third is on innovation and digital economy: how to continue to promote S&T development and innovation and make sure that S&T remains the main engine of China's economic growth. There is also, of course, the continued promotion of the digital economy, including the diffusion and application of AI technology in various domains.
The next one is on sustainable development. As we know, China has promised to achieve carbon peaking by 2030. So how can China do that? That's not a simple task. There are a lot of calculations of how you might do that and so on. So I think that's another major issue.
The next item people talk about is openness: how to further promote openness and international engagement. This is a very complex dimension, particularly given the current geopolitical situation. But again, China is very much determined to do that and there are many efforts. I'm glad to see Mr. Wu Shicun is here. Hainan is certainly a very big effort in the free trade zones.
viewpoing peking uni leader od school of development economics: China's investment in higher education is becoming more and more important because China is moving into an innovative stage of growth. Don't compare China with the United States. As economists, we should compare China with countries with similar levels of income. So what are those countries? Brazil, Malaysia, etc.
ReplyDeleteCompared with those countries, China has done a wonderful, fantastic job in higher education. China now has four universities ranked in the top 50 in the world. If you look at AI publications, among the top 10 institutions in the world, China has four. Tsinghua is just behind Google, ranked No. 2. Our university, Peking University, and Zhejiang University are ranked No. 6. There is another university, I think, Shanghai Jiaotong University. So this is a lot. China each year produces over 10 million university graduates. That's a huge human resource pool. Anyone who doesn't believe in China's growth prospects will make a huge mistake.
How to explain the so-called slowdown of the Chinese economy over the last several years? The slowdown has been the result of deliberate government actions. Starting in 2018, the Chinese government has deliberately started several programmes, even campaigns, to deal with the problems in the Chinese economy: over-leveraging or over-financialisation. I think this is very important for the international community to understand the Chinese economy.
One of the lessons that the Chinese leadership has drawn from the United States is that the United States has hollowed out its manufacturing sector mostly because the United States has too big a financial sector. That's why the Chinese leadership has begun this huge deleveraging campaign—it's really a campaign—to try to reduce the size of the financial sector.
To tell you the truth, my son made a mistake. He transferred from a data science company to a financial company. His salary, I tell you, is halved. The government just cut your salary by half. I mean, if you're in management, your salary is cut by two-thirds just to deter people from entering the financial sector.
Of course, that has a real effect on the economy. But I guess in the mind of the Chinese leaders, you know, the Chinese economy is robust and we can stand the slowdown. That's why you don't see huge stimulus packages over the last several years.
Okay, but what about the headwinds? For example, aging. Many people say ageing is going to kill the Chinese economy. I don't think so. You know, the current problem in China is unemployment, not a lack of labour. We're all worried about, like in other countries, AI and automation going to replace too many people. China is moving fast in those so-called lighthouse factories. Among those new lighthouse factories, China accounts for two-thirds. That's just too fast. So I don't think ageing, at least from the supply side, is going to be a factor slowing down China's growth.
What about the international environment? Since Trump started the first trade war, China's exports to the U.S. have declined. But, and that's very important, if you count by the value added, actually, the United States' reliance on China's exports has increased, not declined. So that's why the United States is putting tariffs on surrounding countries—because Chinese exports go through those countries. Even when we think about the world's reliance on China, that has not declined; it has actually increased. Of course, it's going to be a very difficult situation in Trump's second term, but I still see a lot of room for cooperation and improvements. So, I would like to listen to our American friends and our French friends on how they think about China's position in the world
more on how china sees 2025-30 from CCG event munich security summit feb 2025
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